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          <p>
           弹指一挥间，来美十二年。有些经历再不记下来就全忘了。
          </p>
          <p>
           依稀记得第一次走出旧金山机场时的拥挤。没头苍蝇般的乱撞出关，被接机同学找到就直奔东湾。接下来几天在各位前辈的帮助下渐渐安顿下来。幸运的续租了一位毕业的大侠留下的小屋。和这位大侠直到十年后在西安一个会议上同时给报告时才首次相见。
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          <p>
           第一次进办公室就把师姐的国籍从瑞典听到了瑞士，当天下午就被彬姐纠正错误和不认真的态度，算是首次见识。第二天到办公室就开始钻研概率，统计，英语，准备上课。几天下来也不知干了什么和该干什么。
          </p>
          <p>
           好不容易等到了上课，发现听英文没有课外时那么难。原来数学符号有时还是有用的，对我当时鸡同鸭讲的英文帮助挺大的。可问题是下了课就听不懂了也说不出了。彬姐当时给了几本她当时提高英语时的小册子，有些用，但最后最有用的还是她给的两条建议：1. 和美国同学玩；2.听广播。
          </p>
          <p>
           说起和同学玩，真得感谢系里的美国同学。他们每周都有几个下午组织大家在楼下的草坪上玩游戏（飞盘或门球 ：）。我们级的一个美国同学，Jason，每天下午都拉可以拉动的人去 gym 搬铁块，打壁球（友情提示：打壁球时一定要买副专门的保护眼镜，就不会像我第一次时就被打肿了眼睛）。在这些活动不仅消磨了时间，还大大地改善了英文表达能力。有时在闹笑话的同时也会学到很多日常生活和文化上的东西。记得Jason过生日时我们都做个菜去他家玩。我当然是啥也不会了，就在中国超市买了只鸡，塞进瓦罐里炖了几小时拿去。Jason见了大惊失色的问“这是神马？”原来在美国长大的小朋友是没见过鸡头的。
          </p>
          <p>
           听广播是另一个我觉得非常有用的学习英语的方法。提高听力，扩大词汇量的同时也可以让我了解美国人都关心什么家长里短。相比电视而言，广播开始时更难听懂，但更容易集中注意力。当时跑到 RaiodShack 去买了个像耳机一样的，走路或坐车时听，效果很好（只是要注意交通安全）。当年听彬姐说她们家没有有线电视时还很惊讶，发现自己这些年来也从没安装过。
          </p>
          <p>
           现在回想一下，来美第一年是对语言文化最好奇和最有动力学习的阶段。 错过了就错过了，错过了，错过了。感谢当时的老师同学给我提供那么多机会和快乐。
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           <a class="entry-title" href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/2012/08/07/%e5%a5%bd%e7%9a%84%e5%92%8c%e4%b8%8d%e8%b4%9f%e8%b4%a3%e4%bb%bb%e7%9a%84%e6%95%b0%e6%8d%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%e5%9c%a8%e3%80%8a%e8%87%aa%e7%84%b6%e3%80%8b%e6%9d%82%e5%bf%97%e4%ba%89%e8%ae%ae%e6%96%87/" rel="bookmark" title="好的和不负责任的数据分析在《自然》杂志争议文章中的完全体现">
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           引起热议的《自然》杂志新闻文章
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109" target="_blank">
            Why great Olympic feats raise suspicions
           </a>
           今天有了新进展。杂志的主编
           <strong>
            <em>
             Tim Appenzeller
            </em>
           </strong>
           <em>
            Chief Magazine Editor,
           </em>
           Nature 和
           <strong>
            <em>
             Philip Campbell
            </em>
           </strong>
           <em>
            Editor-in-Chief,
           </em>
           Nature 发了说明
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#/ed_note_continued" target="_blank">
            an editor’s note
           </a>
           并向读者和叶诗文道歉 (这是11:40am EST, August 6, 2012我看到的)
          </p>
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           <h2>
            <strong>
             EDITORS’ NOTE (continued)
            </strong>
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           <p>
            <em>
             The news story was triggered by a debate that was already active, concerning the scale of Ye Shiwen’s victory. Such debates have arisen over many outstanding feats in the past, by athletes from many countries, and it is wrong to suggest, as many of the critics do, that we singled her out because of her nationality.
            </em>
           </p>
           <p>
            <em>
             The story’s intention as an Explainer was to examine how science can help resolve debates over extraordinary performances, not to examine those performance statistics in detail. Several analyses done by others convinced us that it was fair to characterize Ye’s performance as ‘anomalous’ — in the sense that it was statistically unusual. But we acknowledge that the combination of errors discussed above and the absence of a more detailed discussion of the statistics (which with hindsight we regret) gave the impression that we were supporting accusations against her, even though this was emphatically not our intention. For that, we apologize to our readers and to Ye Shiwen.
            </em>
           </p>
           <p>
            <strong>
             <em>
              Tim Appenzeller
             </em>
            </strong>
            <em>
             Chief Magazine Editor,
            </em>
            Nature
            <br/>
            <strong>
             <em>
              Philip Campbell
             </em>
            </strong>
            <em>
             Editor-in-Chief,
            </em>
            Nature
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           前两天我也对原文的统计分析
           <a href="http://blog.cos.name/taoshi/2012/08/02/nature-why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions/" target="_blank">
            有质疑
           </a>
           ，连饶毅写了
           <a href="http://blog.sciencenet.cn/blog-2237-598917.html" target="_blank">
            致《自然》杂志总编的信
           </a>
           。看到
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#/Lai_Jiang" target="_blank">
            好的统计分析
           </a>
           把烂文章指点的体无完肤，还是挺有感触的。
          </p>
          <p>
           但是我还是对总编的中的一句话不解：
           <strong>
            “
            <em>
             Several analyses done by others convinced us that it was fair to characterize Ye’s performance as ‘anomalous’ — in the sense that it was statistically unusual.”
            </em>
           </strong>
          </p>
          <p>
           我希望这 “fair”是一个笔误, 但或许不是呢。如果主编被说服相信叶诗文的表现是离谱的，那主编们能不能指出是那个分析让你们相信叶诗文的表现不正常呢？我有15年以上在大学中学习，教授，和研究统计的经历，但我怎么从评论中看到的大多是指出叶诗文的表现没有不正常呢？
          </p>
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           希望你们这一次不再为没有包括详细的统计分析而后悔！
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            Nature文章: 为何好的奥林匹克成绩引起怀疑
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           8月
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           02
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           2012
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        <span class="updated" title="2012-08-02T15:40:52+00:00">
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         <div class="entry entry-content fix">
          <p>
           8/9/2012，更新：今天收到《自然》杂志自动生成邮件：
          </p>
          <p>
           The following post you wrote on the Nature News website has been hidden by the moderator in accordance with our terms and conditions.
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            To editor Brian Owens:
            <br/>
            I wonder the so called ‘performance profiling’, as mentioned in the title of this article, could be used to judge if the editor was drunk on duty or is lack of basic knowledge of Statistics.
           </p>
           <p>
            If this is article used to highlight what so called science with crappy data analysis cannot tell us, congratulations! You passed with A+.
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           This comment contains abusive language and as such breaches our Terms of Service.
          </p>
          <p>
           –
           <em>
            Nature News
           </em>
           editors
          </p>
          <p>
           －－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－－
          </p>
          <p>
           本以为可以停下来对数字的兴趣来看几天奥运，但看了
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/nature/index.html" target="_blank">
            Nature杂志
           </a>
           的一篇文章， “
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109" target="_blank">
            Why great Olympic feats raise suspicions, ‘Performance profiling’ could help to dispel doubts
           </a>
           “，后还是忍不住写点什么。
          </p>
          <p>
           看了文章马上让我想起这样的书目：
           <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Damned-Lies-Statistics-Untangling-Politicians/dp/0520219783/" target="_blank">
            Damned Lies and Statistics: Untangling Numbers from the Media, Politicians, and Activists
           </a>
           and
           <a href="http://www.amazon.com/More-Damned-Lies-Statistics-Numbers/dp/0520238303/" target="_blank">
            More Damned Lies and Statistics: How Numbers Confuse Public Issues
           </a>
           .
          </p>
          <p>
           NAUTRE, 你叫人情何以堪？我现在还是不把你分类到新闻媒体之列，但或许你很快就证明我是错的。
          </p>
          <div class="wp-caption aligncenter" style="width: 410px">
           <img src="http://www.nature.com/polopoly_fs/7.5628.1343835371!/image/149445070%20reduced.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_400/149445070%20reduced.jpg"/>
           <p class="wp-caption-text">
            L. NEAL /AFP / GETTY IMAGES
           </p>
          </div>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            <strong>
             Was Ye’s performance anomalous?
            </strong>
            <br/>
            Yes. Her time in the 400 IM was more than 7 seconds faster than her time in the same event at a major meet in July. But what really raised eyebrows was her showing in the last 50 metres, which she swam faster than US swimmer Ryan Lochte did when he won gold in the men’s 400 IM on Saturday, with the second-fastest time ever for that event.
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           比较叶诗文和罗切特在400米混合泳的最后50米时间太误导。 这样的分析写新闻报道还可以，要鳌头吗！可稍微有点统计常识的人都不会只用这样简单的数字比较来支持严格的观点的。 有位读者
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#/comment-47487" target="_blank">
            Lai Jiang
           </a>
           评论的很到位：
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            First, to compare a player’s performance increase, the author used Ye’s 400m IM time and her performance at the World championship 2011, which are 4:28.43 and 4:35.15 respectively, and reached the conclusion that she has got an “anomalous” increase by ~7 sec (6.72 sec). In fact she’s previous personal best was 4:33.79 at Asian Games 2010
            <sup>
             <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#fnad852dd0f9344e4c9394fd447fd36629">
              1
             </a>
            </sup>
            . This leads to a 5.38 sec increase. In a sport event that 0.1 sec can be the difference between the gold and silver medal, I see no reason that 5.38 sec can be treated as 7 sec. ……
           </p>
           <p>
            Third, to compare Ryan Lochte’s last 50m to Ye’s is a textbook example of what we call to cherry pick your data. Yes, Lochte is slower than Ye in the last 50m, but (as pointed out by Zhenxi) Lochte has a huge lead in the first 300m so that he chose to not push himself too hard to conserve energy for latter events (whether this conforms to the Olympic spirit and the “use one’s best efforts to win a match” requirement that the BWF has recently invoked to disqualify four badminton pairs is another topic worth discussing, probably not in Nature, though). On the contrary, Ye is trailing behind after the first 300m and relies on freestyle, which she has an edge, to win the game. Failing to mention this strategic difference, as well as the fact that Lochte is 23.25 sec faster (4:05.18) over all than Ye creates the illusion that a woman swam faster than the best man in the same sport, which sounds impossible. Put aside the gender argument, I believe this is still a leading question that implies the reader that something fishy is going on.
           </p>
           <p>
            Fourth, another example of cherry picking. In the same event there are four male swimmers that swam faster than both Lochter (29.10 sec)3 and Ye (28.93 sec)4: Hagino (28.52 sec), Phelps (28.44 sec), Horihata (27.87 sec) and Fraser-Holmes (28.35 sec). As it turns out if we are just talking about the last 50m in a 400m IM, Lochter would not have been the example to use if I were the author. What kind of scientific rigorousness that author is trying to demonstrate here? Is it logical that if Lochter is the champion, we should assume he leads in every split? That would be a terrible way to teach the public how science works.
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           我是真心希望象Nature这样的顶尖杂志能认真些。或许Nature
           <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/why-great-olympic-feats-raise-suspicions-1.11109#/comment-47526" target="_blank">
            线上新闻主编的回答
           </a>
           可以解释：
          </p>
          <blockquote>
           <p>
            We appreciate that the case of Ye Shiwen is a sensitive one for some readers. However, I would like to point out that this story was not intended to insinuate that Ye is guilty of anything. As we point out in the first paragraph, she has never failed a drug test and so is the rightful Olympic champion.
           </p>
           <p>
            We wanted to use the controversy as a way to highlight what science can and can’t tell us with respect to athletes’ performance. We have done similar stories before, for example in the case of South African runner
            <a href="http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090820/full/news.2009.850.html">
             Caster Semenya
            </a>
           </p>
           <p>
            Congratulations to Ye Shiwen on her incredible win!
           </p>
           <p>
            Brian Owens
            <br/>
            Online news editor
           </p>
          </blockquote>
          <p>
           我怀疑文章标题中的’performance profiling’ 方法是否可以用来猜测主编是在审这稿时喝醉了呢，还是缺乏基本的统计知识。如果这文章是象主编所说的用来展示什么是用糊涂数据分析支持的科学不能发现的，恭喜你！你的表现太好了。
          </p>
          <p>
           归根结底，数字只是数字，但每个数字后面都有它的故事。别只看到数字的表面标价（¥6 或 $1）!
          </p>
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